Slowing down of the second wave of COVID-19 in India



Profs. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team at IITKanpur, are working to provide model “Covid-19 Prediction Model” for forecasts up to district-wise granularity. They have launched a website ( ) for updated daily forecasts.

Model observations –

  1. India infection has peaked in the first week of May and is currently on steep decline except for a few states. Average count of daily cases has become nearly 60% of its value on May 8, 2021 due to interventions.

  2. Test positivity rate (TPR) has also reduced from very high value of about 23% on May 8, 2021 to about 12% due to increased daily testing capacity.

  3. Case fatality rate (CFR) has increased to nearly 1.7% but is expected to go down soon with decrease in active infections.

  4. High TPR (>20%): Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Odisha, Northeast states.

  5. Low TPR (<10%): UP, Delhi, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, MP, Chhatisgarh, J&K, Punjab, Telangana, Uttarakhand.

  6. Lowest CFRs: Odisha (0.2%), Kerala (0.5%). Highest CFRs: Delhi (8%), Maharashtra (3.7%)

  7. States yet to saturate: West Bengal, Odisha, All Northeast states



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